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one party has won a simple majority of the 272 parliamentary seats
in Pakistan's new national assembly.. The 'King's party- PML(Q)
bagged 76 seats which relate to only 28 percent of the total. In
fact if one adds up the number of seats bagged by the anti-Musharraf
forces, it equals to more than 43 percent, notwithstanding the
independents who enjoy 22 seats in the new parliament.
One combination would have been PPP-PML(N)-MMA-MQM
coalition (144 seats > 137 required). But such a coalition
between Benazir-Nawaz Sharif-Qazi Hussain Ahmed and Altaf
Hussain's parties would not only be 'unholy', based on each
party's conflicting manifesto, but totally unacceptable to Musharraf
at the outset.
From Musharraf's standpoint, such a coalition would guarantee
continued opposition to his policies present and future and an
agenda for disaster on provincial levels. MMA already control
NWFP and Baluchistan provinces with its pro-Taliban policies.
MQM controls urban Sindh and their existence depends on opposing
the 'power to be'. Lastly, PPP and personally Benazir hates his
guts. As far as Nawaz Sharif is concerned, he is already
committed to Musharraf's ouster ever since he was sent away to
Saudi Arabia on a negotiated 10 year exile!
No wonder then that the military junta jumped on the idea of
stitching a coalition between two opposing forces: PML(Q) which is 'King's party' and PPPP which is a subsidiary of
Musharraf's main opposition party: PPP.
Once it was clear that the six religious parties alliance, MMA,
has taken control of Pakistan's two northern provinces, NWFP and
Baluchistan, it was essential to counter the emerging political
scenario with a stronger moderate force on the national level.
Thus, military's and ISI's swift somersault in favor of bringing PML(Q) and
PPPP on talking terms and assisting them in forming a
coalition government.
Such a move would insure a strong effective
opposition to "rightist forces" within and outside the
parliament thereby providing the neccessary continuance of
Musharraf's policy of aligning Pakistan with the West.
Makhdoom Fahim, second in command of PPP did hold secret talks
with the 'powers to be' and rushed to London to extract
Benazir's blessings on his agreement with Musharraf and the ISI
on the proposed 'coalition'.
I keep separating Musharraf from ISI. They are actually separate
but they appear to be presently united due to expediencies and one common
present cause: to satisfy West's demand to help them weed out
Islamic extremism!
The emergence of Mutahidda Majlis-e-Amal (MMA), an Islamic coalition of six
fiery anti-Western religious parties, has changed the dynamics
of the country's politics for ever and now MMA holds the balance
of power in every bit of the classical sense.
International
observers from the European Union have said that Pakistan's general
election was seriously flawed by official interference in favour
of parties supporting President Pervez Musharraf. Acutally it
was seriously flawed because the Islamic parties managed to get
a wider stage to perform now. Remember Algeria?
But present and future trends speak otherwise. Personally, I do
not agree with EU observer's observations, because the 'end must
justify the means'. The net result is that Musharraf's team
having miscalculated the emergence of an anti-Musharraf-albeit-anti-western-forces'
on the national level, have ended up to possible witness a
'Trojan horse!
Three years of military rule by General Musharraf
have left the country divided. But it it understandable!
Making a U-turn is not easy specially if it is not backed by
popular sentiments. Making a U-turn is not easy if it cannot be
articulated to the man on the street. The man on the street has
a romance with the past and an obsession for 'Islamic
revival' no matter how illogical it may sound to him.
Even if a PML(Q) and PPPP coalition government is
established at the center with the Army's blessings, the Islamic
parties , including but not limited to MQM from sindh will
continue to pursue thieir own agendas which presently stand in
direct opposition to Musharraf's policy of carrying forward
Pakistan to the international stage of 'moderate countries'.
While MMA's existence is primarily based on opposing 'western
influences' in Pakistan and establishment of an Ummah, MQM's
existence is based on opposing the status quo at the center and
its pursuit for provincial autonnomy. Both these agendas end up
on the backburner, much to their discomfort, because of
Musharraf and the Army's pre-occupation with the West's agendas.
Given MMA component parties' history and MQM's history at
opposing forces in the center, there is no doubt that both these
parties will eventually find themselves on same side of the
fence. United, both these parties will be a force to reckon
with.
Whoever is in power, the coalition government and/or the
National Security Council (I mean Musharraf), will find it
difficult not to 'listen' to MMA's and MQM's demands.
According to news reports, leaders of the PML-QA and the PPPP
are locked in secret talks to hammer out a post-election deal on
the formation of a coalition government.
The PPP would cooperate fully with the PML-QA to work for
national reconciliation, PPP leader Makhdoon Amin Fahim told a
press conference after returning from London. The two parties
would discuss the possibility of forming a coalition central
government, he announced.
No wonder then, that the establishment has strongly encouraged
two opposing parties viz: PML(Q) and PPPP to get together to
form a government at the center ASAP lest other parties grap the
opportunity and proceed to form a right-wing coalition of their
own.
Traditionally, the religious parties have had trouble forming an
alliance with an ethnic party like MQM, but there is always room
for creativity given MQM's hold over urban Karachi which has
always been a bastion of street power.
General Musharraf, who is West's 'ally against terror' for another five years, is
therefore clearly keen to get an assembly with which he can work.
The election results have produced as many 'independent
variables' as they have produced 'dependable variables'.
An alliance between PML(Q) and PPPP may only temporarily glue
the two variables to provide the 'powers to be' the opportunity
to fullfill their new agenda. But the nation of Pakistan deserve a better deal
than accomodating a quick-fix with no guarantee of success and
sustained performance!
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