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 International
observers from the European Union have said that Pakistan's general
election was seriously flawed by official interference in favour
of parties supporting President Pervez Musharraf.
But results from
Thursday's election gave a party allied to President Pervez
Musharraf only 80 seats, which is well short of an overall
majority in an assembly of 272 members.
In fact parties opposed to President General Pervez Musharraf have won a
sizeable number of seats in the new national
parliament and the four provincial assemblies.
A strong showing by MMA, a
coalition of six fiery anti-Western religious parties, which
opposes Musharraf and his policies, means that a party opposing
Musharraf
may hold the balance of power.
Pakistan Muslim League Qaide Azam (PML-QA), which is
supportive of President Pervez Musharraf and referred to as the
'King's Party', won only 80 seats
followed by 62 bagged by Pakistan People's Party
Parliamentarians (PPPP)- a subsidiary of Benazir
Bhutto's Pakistan Peoples Party. MMA- the anti-western alliance
of Taliban-supportive religious parties won 52.
. Independents won 26 seats. And, PPPP's present political partner PML(N)
bagged
only 14 seats.
Even if Musharraf's machinery did try to 'doctor' the results,
it appears that the plan boomeranged. It is now clear that three years of military rule by General Musharraf
have left the country divided.
Given the present scenario, President Musharraf would face a
hard choice of whether to seek an accord with the PPP and the
PML (N), as he does not see eye to eye with their leaders or
with the MMA bitterly opposed to his alliance with the US-led
coalition against war on terrorism.
Prior to his
departure Benazir's second in command Makhdoom Amin Fahim held talks with General Musharraf and the
all-powerful ISI in which it is
reported that Fahim was offered the premiership if his party
formed a coalition with the PML-QA and the independents.
Although PPP acting secretary general Mian Raza Rabbani on
Friday ruled out an alliance with the PML (QA), at a news
conference in Islamabad, party sources say the chief point of
discussion between Benazir Bhutto and Makhdoom Amin Fahim, the
president of the PPP’s “Parliamentarians” electoral entity who
was in London for consultations with the party chairperson, was
the possibility of partnership with the “king’s party” for the
formation of a coalition government.
According to news reports, leaders of the PML-QA and the PPPP
are locked in secret talks to hammer out a post-election deal on
the formation of a coalition government.
The PPP would cooperate fully with the PML-QA to work for
national reconciliation, PPP leader Makhdoon Amin Fahim told a
press conference after returning from London. The two parties
would discuss the possibility of forming a coalition central
government, he announced.
Based on all the foregoing, it is clear that even if Musharraf
did try to influence the election results, he has in fact ended
up with a bitter harvest.
As damage control, it is likely that the idea of a PML(Q) and
PPPP coalition has been floated by Musharraf's team lest forces inimical tohim overtake the direction of changes
he wants to pursue.
Even if a coalition of 'King's party' and Benazir's PPP
do materialize, the coalition of six fiery anti-Western religious
parties will remain a power to reckon with, both inside and
outside the parliament. This is the first time in 55 years of
Pakistan's history that the 'Mullahs' enjoy a greater political
say than always. And, trust me, they will exercise it to the
hilt!
Traditionally, the
religious parties have had trouble winning seats, but the MMA's
anti-US message went down particularly well in areas bordering
Afghanistan, where there had been some support for the Taleban.
In parliament and in the two northern provinces which abut
Afghanistan, MMA's strong presence will be a source of
concern not only for the new coalition government but also for Musharraf and his western allies.
Western powers, albeit 'the coalition against terror', may have
blessed this idea, given the seriousness of their interests in the turbulent South-Asian regional politics
vis-a-vis their war against terrorism. Western
coalition plans to stay in Afghanistan not only
to protect their realigned geo-political interests but to
insure smooth uninterrupted access to Afghanistan's and Central
Asia's vast oil and gas resources. In the overall chessboard of
western strategy, Pakistan is vital as long as it remains a
moderate state with access to the Arabian sea.
Whether Washington likes it
or not, American policy has been seen as anti-Islamic and the campaign
against Al-Qaeda and the Taleban has been viewed as a campaign against
Islam. Thus, that is the message the US
must take from the unexpectedly strong showing of the six-party
religious alliance called MMA.
General Musharraf, who is West's 'ally against terror' for another five years, is
therefore clearly keen to get an assembly with which he (and the
western powers specially the US) can work.
But MMA will definitely form state governments
in the two northern provinces of NWFP and Baluchistan and will
choose to run the affairs of their provinces on a striclty
Islamic line. Whether Musharraf and the West like it or not!
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