|
 NOV 3:
Any coalition in the divided National Assembly would remain
unstable. The PML-Q, with 118 members, can reach a simple
majority with the expected support from the 16-seat National
Alliance, 17-seat Muttahida Qaumi Movement, most of the 14
independents and some other pro-government groups. But PPP with
81 seats, MMA with 60, and PML-N with 19 seats together could do the same if
they succeeded in winning over MQM with 17 seats. Pir Pagara has
already committed his party's 5 seats to MMA-ARD grouping.
In short MQM appears to be the wild card. Its position may
emerge to be decisive in the formation of any coalition, pro-Musharraf
or otherwise.
Disputes between PML(Q) and MMA parties as they attempted to form
coalitions are centred on controversial constitutional changes
by President Pervez Musharraf and bickering over key
parliamentary posts, including the prime ministership.
Jamali's nomination Friday as PML(Q) candidate for Prime
Ministership meant a PML-Q "no" to a coalition with the PPP or
MMA.
On the other hand,
Muttahida Qaumi
Movement (MQM) has said it
had no objection to new legislators taking oath under the PCO or
the Legal Framework Order, since it had been demanding a new
constitution anyway. This thinking brings it closer to the
corridors of power with PML(Q) and NA almost already there.
MQM which needs the support from the establishment for
exoneration of its leader Altaf Hussain may thus join hands with
the PML(Q).
MQM, whose strength in the National Assembly
increased to 17 with the addition of its minority candidate claims
to be in a comfortable position in Sindh also and hopes to play a
leading role in the future provincial set-up. They have also received
'clear indications' from the Grand National Alliance, which
includes National Alliance and Pakistan Muslim League (Q), about
a possibility of an MQM nominee heading the Sindh provincial coalition
government.
Pakistan People's Party, which emerged as the single
largest party in Sindh assembly but without a clear majority, is
finding it difficult to work out its strategy in Sindh because
of the fluid situation at the centre, its past differences with
MQM and MQM's most recent statement that it has no objection to
the LFO.
| Party positions |
PML (Q) 118
PPPP 81
MMA 60
PML(N) 19
MQM 17
NA 16
Ind 5
Ind: (FATA) 8
PML(F) 5
PTI 1
Azam Tariq 1
PML-J 3
PAT 1
JWP 01
PPP-Sherpao 2 MQM (H) 1
BNP 01
PML (Z) 1
|
We now have two distinct groupings contending for government
formation at the center. PML(Q) + NA + MQM + independents on one
hand and MMA + PPPP + ARD + few independents on the other hand.
Ideologically, MMA and PPPP are poles apart but their
opposition to Musharraf's policies and his extra-constitutional
changes seems to have brought both of them closer. More
specifically, their joint opposition to LFO and Musharraf's
continuance as President and Army Chief of Staff.
It is possible that a MMA-PPPP opposition grouping may press for
a runoff election. MMA has already sounded this off. And
PPPP has already questioned the legitimacy of the election
results.
Some quarters have also indicated that General Musharraf may ask
the judiciary to give him another mandate to continue with his
existing extra parliamentary set up. This may serve only as stop
gap measure. In the long run politically it could be a recipe
for disaster.
What is the alternative then? One, a government of "national
consensus" as PPPP's Makhdoom Amin Fahim has been
attempting to
form. Second, repoll but the results could be worse.
As one respected Pakistani editor has recently written " General Pervez
Musharraf is marrying the much married and divorced Muslim
League. He is also making a house of cards for his bride. But
when the bridal suite begins to crumble, as indeed it must, the
PMLQ will desert the general as surely and swiftly as she has
done many past masters.
"
|
E-mail this article to a
friend