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Pakistan's National Predicament
 
APRIL 11 - Sitting in his house in Islamabad with a close aide , President General Pervez Musharraf reportedly explored the scenario in Pakistan - albeit if he were to take off the uniform as being demanded of him . "Well I am being counseled by some of my own family members to take off the uniform but others suggest I keep it on. Myself I am not too sure".

This classic "to be or not to be" scenario is also microcosm of the way Pakistanis as a nation are moving ahead. On one hand they want the goodies offered by living off western lifestyles, and on the other hand the power of the fundamentalists sways them the other way.

In such a backdrop, the somewhat tempered US support as reflected in the most recent statements of Richard Boucher, the US Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asia, which suggested that the US support for General Musharraf is not as absolute anymore, Pakistan's present political scenario appears once again kaleidoscopic at the best.

The US are now looking ahead to the 2007 elections. According to a report, Boucher linked the return of Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif to Pakistan and its politics as "major players" along with U.S. vision of a free, modern and democratic Pakistan. He also confirmed having met the country’s chief election commissioner to assess the extent of Pakistan’s democratic process.

Addressing Musharraf's uniform issue in an interview in India, Boucher said "That's not the central issue; the central issue is whether democracy will establish in Pakistan next year through free and fair elections. The question of his two posts arises in that context, needs to be addressed in that context, and he has promised to do so. But the key to us is this overall movement towards a restoration of democracy, and we are happy that it has begun and are happy to support it. We have seen the appointment of a Central Election Commissioner with some credibility. That's a key part, it's not the whole thing, it doesn't ensure a perfectly fair election but it is one of the pieces that has to work, and we'll try to help it make it work, and support the process as it moves forward."

There is therefore an obvious but subtle shift in the United States' continued support to Musharraf - "a friend, ally, buddy" - and the army as the performing party post 9/11, and given the most recent  drumbeats of democracy, civilian rule in Pakistan, and the military being under civilian control, its shift appears to be clearer than ever. The first volley was fired with the unprecedented invitation of Benazir Bhutto to the Voice Of America's worldwide media platform and her well publicized press briefing. As to how General Musharraf and the other power brokers are interpreting this shift will be according to their own looking glass though.

It is no longer a secret that Ms Bhutto and her husband Asif Zardari are unacceptable to the General and his cohorts. This fact was amply demonstrated some two weeks ago when the National Accountability Board (NAB) not only renewed corruption charges against both of them but also added more serious charges against the couple for having illegally acquired properties in Spain and elsewhere. The fact that neither Ms Bhutto or Zardari has denied these charges is raising the eye brows of many politicians. While one concedes that constant barrage of government attacks may be distracting to the husband and wife team but when the chargers are so specific an adequate response is not only necessary but a must for the record. Unfortunately that has not happened to date.

As against that, the PML (N) duo ,Nawaz and Shahbaz Sharif did not have charges against them increased or added - except for those that where leveled against them at the time of their forced exile -- like building the palace at Raiwind -- nothing else has been added.

Be that as it may, the PPP leadership needs to level with the people in order to gain their trust ultimately.

But looking ahead, one insider says that one should wait and see to interpret the party elections of PML(Q) which are expected to be held in August. It could become a deciding factor in the body politick of Pakistan, according to the insider.

If meetings are any indication of where the essence and brass tacks of Pakistan's politics are moving to, former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, who was unable to obtain American visa in time to come to New York to attend a wedding of a close confidant's son, is expected to come to United States next month. His brother Shahbaz Sharif and PPP power broker Asif Zardari are already here.

Some news reports claim that all three plan to meet and discuss politics, elections, return to Pakistan, etc. in the order or priority they finally agree by consensus. It would not be a surprise though if BB also participates in the meeting or is included in it through video conferencing.

In the past, London was that mystical platform from where sub-continental politicians planned and launched movements, conspired and toppled governments, bid for power with or without successes. Now the U.S. may appear to offer them a more open, majestic and freer scenario.

Recently former Chief Minister of Punjab and PML (N) leader Shahbaz Sharif suggested that all opposition political parties sign a contract stating clearly that if there are free and fair elections which gave them the mandate, they would form a national government to rule for next five years without losers trying to use the army and or other unscrupulous means to unseat them.

He said that PML (N) is ready to sign on such a contract . But will the others? There in lies the dilemma.
 
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