Updated Aug 27, at 10:00 PM,
EST
NJ, AUG 27 - Is the killing of Nawab Akbar Bugti, the end
of the beginning of the Baloch nationalist movement or the
beginning of a more dangerous and serious effort to carve
out an independent "Greater Balochistan".
Pakistan's leading Baloch nationalist leader,
and an articulate spokesman for their cause, Nawab Akbar Bugti, was killed Saturday in a massive
military operation at his mountain cave hideout in the
restive Balochistan province bordering Iran and
Afghanistan. Authorities say the cave's roof collapsed.
Balaj Marri, leader of the Marri tribe and Army Chief of
Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) also, was among the dead, including two of Bugti's grandsons
Brahamdagh and Mir Ali Bugti.
An indefinite curfew is in place in Quetta,
after unrest following Tiger of Balochistan's death, and outbreaks of violence have been reported in
Karachi and other
parts of Pakistan.
America's leading strategic forecasting magazine STRATFOR says
in its latest news analysis, "Bugti's death will significantly weaken
the tribal-nationalist insurgency in the country, but not
before a period of retaliatory violence. The killing is a
major victory for Islamabad in terms of containing the
insurgency, but it could spark a political backlash against
the Musharraf government at a time when its two main
opposition alliances (ARD, MMA) are gearing up for a campaign to oust
the general."
Steely-haired
Bugti, 80, was seen as the kingpin in an increasing Baloch
nationalist insurgency, and President Gen. Pervez
Musharraf had refused to bow to demands for greater
provincial autonomy.
Musharraf was informed of Bugti's demise,
which had looked imminent after a grand tribal elders'
meeting (Jirga) Friday in his home town Sui.
The gathering (Jirga) interestingly had condemned Bugti's "reign of terror" in the
region, which supplies about 25 per cent of the country's
natural gas from Sui fields. The meeting also produced an
announcement that 80- year-old Bugti's ancestral properties
and homes would be confiscated. The Jirga also announced
end to the "Sardari Nizam".
It was an ominous event.
Private Geo TV reported that intelligence and security
forces tracked down Bugti by his satellite phones, which
they said the tribal chieftain had been using frequently for
contacts with relatives and the media.
India's leading daily newspaper Hindustan Times reported
some sources saying that Bugti and his entourage were
betrayed by some of his own tribesmen, who sold the
coordinates of his exact location, thus enabling the
Pakistani security forces to target his hideout with U.S
manufactured missiles.
Official sources spoke of the deaths of at least seven
important Bugti commanders but declined to confirm
independent reports that the army also suffered heavy losses
including a colonel, two majors and three captains in the operation that had
been launched on Friday.
Bugti was among Baloch nationalist leaders in the early
1970s who mounted a separatist movement, which was
eventually quashed by the Pakistani army.
The current turmoil in the mineral-rich province, the
largest by area of Pakistan's four provinces, began in
January 2005, when a woman doctor in Bugti's home town Sui
was allegedly raped by security personnel stationed there.
The woman doctor, Shazia Khalid, was ultimately sent off to
Canada.
Mr Bugti and his nationalist allies, specially Balochistan
Liberation Army (BLA), continued to press for an increased
share of wealth from natural resources extracted from the
province, rich in gas, oil and coal. Mr Bugti had described
army forces as "invaders and occupiers" for expanding
military garrisons into Balochistan. Hundreds, if not
thousands, of tribesmen fought under his uncompromising
leadership.
Pakistani intelligence officials, talking to Asia Times
Online in January, had hinted at the involvement of Western
intelligence agencies in the most recent Balochistan
uprising, which have strong centers of operations in Qatar-UAE
and London.
There have also been reports that Pakistani agencies think a
Middle Eastern country may be backing the insurgency, for
fear of losing its position as the regional trade center.
Abdul Hai Baluch, a prominent Baloch politician, while
condemning the killing of Bugti, said "It should have not
happened."
Amin Fahim, president of the opposition Pakistan Peoples
Party (PPP) also condemned Bugti's killing and said it
would spell more problems for Musharraf.
"I can foresee more turmoil from Baloch nationalists in the
coming days," Fahim told Geo TV.
Lt-General (r) Asad Durrani, former director general of
Inter-Services Intelligence, said Bugti was more dangerous
to the government dead than alive.
Sardar Akhtar Mengal, president of the Balochistan National
Party (BNP), told Daily Times that Nawab Bugti was a
“fighter” for the rights of the Balochis and his death had
drawn the line between Balochistan and Pakistan. He said the
Baloch nation would seek revenge for Nawab Bugti’s murder.
“After every 10 years, they gift us dead bodies of our
elders. We will not forget this,” he added.
Stratfor predicts a retaliatory scenario in its article. "Given that Bugti
was the most prominent of the three Baloch rebel leaders (Nawab Khair Bakhsh Marri and Sardar Attaullah Khan Mengal are the
other two), his killing deals a major blow to the
insurgency, though a wave of retaliatory attacks from his
tribe and the Baloch rebel movement can be expected soon.
Attacks could take place against communication,
transportation and gas infrastructure, as well as against
foreign businesses in the province and in other major
cities, such as Karachi."
The killing of Bugti, who went into hiding several months
ago after the insurgency picked up steam, suggests Islamabad
has gained a decisive edge over the Baloch rebel movement --
though the timing of the death could prove problematic, Stratfor
states.
Opposition groups of the secular Alliance for the
Restoration of Democracy and the Islamist Mutahiddah
Majlis-i-Amal (MMA), which have been prepping to wage a
campaign to oust Pakistani President Gen. Pervez Musharraf,
could exploit Bugti's killing to their advantage, Stratfor
observes.
The backlash from Bugti's killing in Balochistan, where the
line between rebels and politicians is fluid, Stratfor
continues, could lead to
the imposition of governor's rule and dismissal of the
provincial legislature. Should the province's coalition
government, comprised of the ruling Pakistani Muslim League
and the MMA, be sent packing, the repercussions could reach
far beyond the province, leading to instability throughout
the delicately weaved Musharrafian political system.
"Bugti's killing may have weakened an insurgency in a single
province, but it could raise a firestorm at the national
level -- at a time when the Musharraf government already is
threatened."
And, as Daily Times aptly wrote, "A pall of gloom has
descended over Pakistan that will not lift in a hurry. This
is the biggest blunder committed by the military since the
execution of Zulfikar Ali Bhutto." |
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