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| By Irshad Salim

Last Updated: 24-Jun-2007 09:01:00 PM PST

SEPT 24 - Hong Kong based Asia Times Online (ATOL) says it has obtained exclusive information which "shows" that Osama Bin Laden recently traveled from the South Waziristan tribal area in Pakistan to somewhere in the eastern Afghan provinces of Kunar and Nooristan, or possibly Bajour, a small tribal agency in the Federally Administered Tribal Area of Pakistan (FATA). FATA is situated in the northwest of Pakistan and is part of its North West Frontier Province (NWFP). [http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/HI14Df03.html]

According to a witness, says ATOL, Bin Laden traveled in a double-cabin truck with a few armed guards. Apparently, this is how he now prefers to move around, reported Asia Times online journal.


At the same time, a close aide responsible for Bin Laden's logistics and media relations told ATOL that Bin Laden had recovered from serious kidney-related ailments.

But, French secret service officials have said Bin Laden recently died of typhoid in a remote area of Pakistan, quoting Saudi intelligence reports. According to French newspaper L'Est Republicain, the French secret service have informed President Chirac that Saudi Arabia is trying to confirm intelligence reports that Osama bin Laden is dead.

The newspaper quoted the leaked confidential report of the secret service stating "According to a reliable source, Saudi security services are now convinced that Osama bin Laden is dead."

"Information gathered by the Saudis indicates that the head of al-Qaeda was a victim while he was in Pakistan on Aug. 23, 2006, of a very serious case of typhoid, which led to a partial paralysis of his internal organs," the newspaper added.

Saudi officials were awaiting further confirmation, particularly the exact place of Bin Laden's burial, before announcing his death, the leaked report said.

CNN on Saturday quoted a Saudi intelligence official saying that the al Qaeda leader is suffering from a waterborne illness. There have been credible reports that the most wanted man in the world is ill, but there is no intelligence indicating he is dead, the source said.

Timeline shows George Bush having called Gen. Musharraf the same day the French newspaper says Bin Laden died - Aug 23. Renegade Baloch leader, Bugti, suspected of having sought help from Al-Qaeda, was killed on or about August 26. The US condoned his "targeted killing" by Pak Special Services Group commandos, stating Bugti was involved in "terrorist acts" having supported the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) which was declared a terrorist group by UK some time ago.

The significance of all these events is aplenty, say some Pakistan observers.

A Western diplomat based in Riyadh said, “Even if Saudi Arabia had information (of Osama's death), they’d pass it on to the US, not France.

Saudi and US intelligence agencies are close - they cooperate regularly. "It is possible the U.S. is aware of the "death" or Bin Laden's "illness", but are waiting for confirmation before announcing it," said one Pakistan news watcher.

Gen. Musharraf said in a "60 Minutes" interview, to be aired today, that former U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage told the director of Pakistani intelligence in the wake of the 9/11 attacks that Pakistan would be bombed "back to the Stone Age" if its government did not cooperate with U.S. forces in Afghanistan.

Musharraf's comments came a day after U.S. President George W. Bush said that U.S. forces will "absolutely" be sent into Pakistan to capture or kill al Qaeda leaders if they have actionable intelligence. Musharraf insisted that Pakistani troops are capable of catching Osama bin Laden and his entourage on their own. "While both sides are deliberately sparring over the issue of Pakistan's territorial sovereignty in the public realm, preparations appear to be under way for the United States to claim the capture or killing of another high-value al Qaeda target in the near future," reported Stratfor on Sept 22.

Stratfor, is a leading security consulting intelligence agency, offers intelligence and strategic forecasting services on world events, terrorist attacks, etc. to help its clients prepare for uncertainties and take action for maximizing results, says their website.

According to Stratfor, "for Bush, the November congressional elections are rapidly approaching, and his administration is facing mounting criticism over the dragging U.S.-jihadist war. If Bush can claim another capture or killing of a high-value al Qaeda target, he might boost himself in the polls to help ensure that Republicans will maintain their hold over the House and Senate."

Stratfor added, "the countdown to U.S. midterm elections has begun, and the time for the Americans to strike is near. Musharraf feels he can't stall Washington any longer, so he is falling back to a defensive position and hoping he can weather the storm. If this were not the case, he would never have said what he did. After all, he has kept quiet about Armitage's threat for five years. To bring it up now looks like a sign of desperation."

Some analysts think stage is being set by the U.S. to "enter" Pakistan - it's the backyard of Iran after all. It will be easier to take out Iran's nuclear assets and reduce its increasing clout in the region. Bugti's removal from the scene and Bush's insistence that U.S. forces will "absolutely" be sent into Pakistan to capture or kill Bin Laden if they have actionable intelligence, are some of the significant moves in that direction.

"The Republicans need more fuel in the fire to guarantee another poll success. Remember the "Bin Laden tape" that helped Bush win the 2004 elections?, " said one observer.

On January 18, 2003, President Gen Pervez Musharraf warned of an "impending danger" that Pakistan will become a target of war for "Western forces" after the Iraq crisis. "We will have to work on our own to stave off the danger. Nobody will come to our rescue, not even the Islamic world. We will have to depend on our muscle." [Press Trust of India, 1/19/03, Financial Times, 2/8/03]

Pointing to "a number of recent 'background briefings' and 'leaks'" from the US government, "Pakistani officials fear the Bush administration is planning to change its tune dramatically once the war against Iraq is out of the way." [Financial Times, 2/8/03]

"
In the context of all this, and given the timing of these events, including Pentagon's "new map" floated on the web recently, Pakistan is again in the eye of another storm," commented Khurram Habib, a New Jersey based Pakistani-American who keenly watches Pakistan affairs.

 
 
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