 NEW
JERSEY, JAN
21 - Gen Musharraf will remain President, elections or no
elections, by hook or by crook.
He will bend the rules and schedule a
legislative vote ahead of the general elections to get
re-elected to another five-year term.
If that does not happen, the next legislative election
(predicted to be on Jan 15, 2008), results will be rigged as
needed to allow his parliamentary allies to hold onto their
seats, says a report.
According to 2007 Annual Forecast report by Stratfor, a
leading Texas-based strategic forecasting firm, the General
has a comfortable majority in the sitting parliament to help
him win a re-election bid, but his standing cannot be
assured after the general elections are held and a new
parliament comes to power.
The report takes credit on having predicted last year that
Musharraf would face a galvanized opposition and would be
forced to decide whether to stay on as the country's
military chief.
Musharraf was successful in staving off opposition attempts
to unseat him, allowing him to keep his dual portfolio as
president and head of the military.
General elections are slated for Jan. 15, 2008,
the Stratfor predicts, and according to the forecast, the general has developed a solid strategy
to secure his re-election and outmaneuver the main
opposition forces in the country -- namely the Pakistan
People's Party (PPP), led by exiled former Pakistani Prime
Minister Benazir Bhutto, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N),
led by ousted Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and the
Mutahiddah Majlis-i-Amal (MMA) coalition of Islamist
parties.
The report observes that Musharraf has a comfortable
majority in the sitting parliament to help him win a
re-election bid, but his standing cannot be assured after
the general elections are held and a new parliament comes to
power. "To consolidate his hold over the government,
Musharraf will (then) bend the rules and schedule a
legislative vote ahead of the general election to get
re-elected to another five-year term. Musharraf could even
attempt to bypass this step by calling snap elections in the
spring of 2007 if he feels confident enough in his ability
to win. Snap elections or no, the legislative election
results will be rigged as needed to allow Musharraf's
parliamentary allies to hold onto their seats. The
opposition forces will then use the allegations of a rigged
election to hold street demonstrations, but are unlikely to
muster enough support to change the election results
significantly. Musharraf will continue with a careful
strategy to prevent the PPP, the PML-N and the MMA from
uniting in a potent opposition force, fueling distrust among
the already severely divided parties by hinting at making
deals with the various opposition leaders. Musharraf will
also be able to hold onto his position as military chief
this year."
The biggest threat to Musharraf's election plan, says the
report, is the
potential for large-scale U.S. military activity on
Pakistani soil that would undermine the military's
confidence in the general and turn public support against
him. To enhance his domestic image, Musharraf will distance
himself from Washington in the coming year and become even
more restrained in cooperating with U.S. forces on the
counterterrorism front.
While predicting a zero sum game on PIK
(Pakistan-India-Kashmir) affair, the report says India
will privately prefer the continuation of Musharraf's
relatively stable regime - it will go through the motions
of continuing peace talks, "but those talks will only be for
show."
Primarily to boost his credibility at home, Musharraf will
try to push India into resolving the long-standing Kashmir
dispute, and New Delhi will politely rebuff Musharraf's
proposals," the report adds.
The forecast does not however mention America's "strategic
interests" on these important regional developments, nor
does it address or predict what US positions are or will be
on these developments.
(-Report filed by Irshad Salim)
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