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NJ, APR 7 - The American establishment, in order to focus on
fighting the jihadists, is playing a decisive role behind
the scene in making Gen Musharraf and Benazir Bhutto forge
unity - some call it an unholy alliance.
Pakistan, according to the West, must move past the fallout from
its current
crisis and refocus on West's critical strategic objectives
if it wants to continue being their "most beneficial ally," says one analyst.
According to Stratfor, a Texas-based news intelligence
service, there is a government-jihadist struggle taking place in
Pakistan in the context
of domestic political instability due to the country's
ongoing legal crisis. This has forced President Gen. Pervez
Musharraf to accelerate back-channel dealings with the main
opposition group, the Pakistan Peoples'
Party-Parliamentarians (PPP-P), led by former Prime Minister
Benazir Bhutto.
Musharraf's dire need to gain control of the jihadists has
brought the president and Bhutto closer to an
agreement, especially given that they are more or less on
the same ideological page regarding Islamism and jihadism,
reported the intel service.
A similar analysis is also being echoed by keen Pakistani
observers.
Both Musharraf and Bhutto have been holding behind-the-scenes talks for almost
three years. One of the reasons these discussions have
produced no results is that accepting a president in uniform
would be a deadly political blow for the PPP-P, which stands
to lose its support should it go against its historic role
as the anti-establishment political party, the analysis says. The party,
according to Stratfor, also
does not want a deal under which it merely replaces
Musharraf's main civilian ally, the ruling Pakistan Muslim
League (PML).
In other words, says the report, PPP-P is looking for a certain degree of
power. However, Musharraf is only working with the party in
order to secure his own political position. Hence, a deal
that undercuts his authority is a nonstarter -- something
Bhutto knows well.
Continuing with its forecast, the intel service says that the former prime minister also understands that, just as
Musharraf needs her to help sustain his hold on power, she
must work out a deal with him in order to stage a political
comeback. This means, the report continues, each will have to compromise. While the
idea of Musharraf remaining military chief is unthinkable
for the PPP-P, a deal under which Musharraf retains a
considerable degree of power as the civilian president and
Bhutto serves as prime minister -- with more authority than
the current prime minister enjoys -- might be acceptable.
While Musharraf will not want to give up his position as
military chief -- the source of his strength -- the
political crisis in the country has made it clear that
clinging to this title could weaken his hold on power.
According to one analyst, the rapid "Talibanisation" of the
capital Islamabad and the northern provinces including
Punjab, is drawing international concerns and forcing the
coalition of forces involved in the war against terrorism
and Islamic extremism to redraw boundaries of rationalities,
rethink strategies, reprioritize efforts and reposition the
resources already committed to or to be committed in future.
In such a backdrop, the West thinks that Musharraf and
Bhutto's dislike for each other should be replaced with a
"marriage of convenience," said another Pakistan observer.
Talking to DesPardes.com, a Pakistani-American with a keen
interest in current affairs, said that Musharraf and Benazir
including Nawaz Sharif have "to play bridge together" if
they want mutual survival. All three want to be players in
Pakistan's ever growing strategic position.
Given what is at stake for both sides, a deal under which
Musharraf -- as a civilian president -- acts as a balancing
force between parliament and the military is not out of the
question, says Stratfor. "In the past, Bhutto and her PPP-P have headed
governments in which the military had oversight over the
civilian administration and the civilian president had the
power to dismiss the Cabinet and parliament. A slightly
altered version of this, wherein a PPP-P-led government
exercises more power than it has during its last two stints
in office, is possible."
There obviously are many details that still need to be
worked out; most important is what will happen to the ruling
PML if Musharraf and the PPP-P strike a deal -- an issue
STRATFOR first discussed some two years ago. While the
country's growing political and security instability has
forced Musharraf and the PPP-P to become more pragmatic, it
has done the same for the PML.
"The party, which has opposed a Musharraf-Bhutto deal for
fear of losing its political position, now is entertaining
the idea of forming a coalition government with the PPP-P
and other like-minded groups -- along the lines of the
left-center-right governments in Germany and Israel. It is
too early to say whether such a deal can be worked out,
especially given the number of moving parts on Pakistan's
domestic political scene."
"But it is certain that -- regardless of such a coalition's
configuration -- Washington would certainly favor an option
that unites the establishment and the mainstream opposition.
From the U.S. point of view, such a setup would balance the
need for change with the need to maintain continuity, and
hopefully allow the country to move past the current crisis
and focus on fighting the jihadists."
Meanwhile, Islamabad is rife with rumors and pundits are
busy speculating a “major change” at the top. The whispers
prompted the presidency, a top military commander and the
new information secretary to deny the prime minister was on
his way out, reported Daily Times today.
“We have not even imagined any such thing,” a presidential
spokesman was reported as saying. But the rumor-mongers
insist that it is a matter of days. They even quote unnamed
“well-connected” sources that it’s time for a change.
One earlier news report had said that Gen Musharraf may try
to push the blame of the existing judicial crisis on the PM.
Though there are no apparent reasons for any “wrap-up”
because the working relationship between Gen Musharraf and
PM Aziz is “very cordial”, the judicial crisis along with
the “Talibanisation” of Islamabad and a govt-PPP squabble
over a “deal” or “dheel” are the topics of “drawing-room”
discussions in Pakistan.
Two close-to-the-presidency federal ministers insist on a
covert deal, predicting a “breakthrough” in the near future,
according to the influential Pakistani newspaper.
NSC Secretary Tariq Aziz reportedly met Benazir in Dubai two
days ago. Shaikh Rashid insists the issue has now moved from
the “quarter-final to the semi-final”.
The "speculations and (dis)informations", according to DT,
started with Musharraf telling PML leaders last week to
confront those exploiting the judicial crisis and leave the
PPP to him, followed by Benazir’s admission of back-channel
contacts with the regime.
DesPardes.com has learnt that back
channel diplomacy is in a very high gear, in fact the deal has
already been struck, the source said, with minute details
being worked out, and waiting to be made public by the spin
doctors from both sides - to maximize the impact of the
event both in Pakistan and internationally, the source
added.
There are unconfirmed reports however that the election commissioner
is being changed to assuage the concerns of opposition
parties, particularly the PPP. The search for a caretaker PM
is said to be on, said DT. "But given the legal requirements
and the government’s insistence that the present assemblies
will re-elect Musharraf for the second term, it does not
sound credible the system will be wrapped up soon. The
possibility of a new PM for a short period also does not
make any sense because Aziz has not (apparently) done
anything to annoy the top man. But anything can happen when
the stakes are high," DT new report commented.
(Filed by Irshad Salim)
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