Benazir - stuck between the two

BY IRSHAD SALIM

"If the people are coming out on the streets we should be very happy about it. At least there is now an awareness among the people of how important democracy is in Pakistan," he said.

"The West cannot sit as a silent spectator while Musharraf is destroying the institutions of the country. Pakistan needs to send a very clear message to the international community today that enough is enough - don't support a military dictator who has no respect for the constitution."

The former leader, who has long said he plans to return to Pakistan, said current events might speed his homecoming.

"I have every intention of going back to Pakistan before the elections. A lot of unforeseen developments are now taking place in Pakistan...but I might have to go fairly soon.. it could be weeks," he said.


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Nawaz Sharif's outpouring comes at a time when the country is rife with talk that Musharraf and Bhutto were overcoming their mutual distrust to forge a common front against religious conservative forces before a general election expected later this year. The Western media have also said the United States and UK's want secular forces in Pakistan to join hands to fight extremism. And, it was also important to see Gen Musharraf remain in charge in some sort of power arrangement.

The rationale being presented is that only Musharraf and his army for the present could provide the continuity of frontline efforts made to checkmate spread of Islamic radicalism in the region.

In the scheme of things, Sharif finds himself out of the loop. Firstly, because of his direct personal differences with Musharraf which led to the 1999 coup. Thus, Musharraf wants no deal with him. Secondly, his political standing and vote bank brings him closer to the right of the center parties called the Islamists. While, Musharraf and Benazir want to mobilize secular cum liberal forces.  Ironically, it was the powerful army's intelligence wing ISI who groomed him into politics. But at the time, as we all know now, Islamists provided the centrifugal force to Pakistan's politics along with the army.

Sharif and Bhutto, once bitter rivals, formed the multi-party Alliance for the Restoration of Democracy after Musharraf's bloodless coup in 1999. But the relationship has been at the best unproductive. Looking back, it seemed a marriage of convenience.

Meanwhile, as we all know, there has been a rapid elevation in recent weeks of suspended chief justice Iftikhar to a national symbol of resistance to the government.

With that, President Musharraf's room to maneuver in the crisis is diminishing at the same rate.

'The president is completely living in a state of self-denial. He is giving a false sense of confidence like some of his ministers,' political analyst Talat Masood said. 'This crisis has gone beyond the chief justice - the people are now looking for rule of law, accountability and transparency,' DPA quoted the analyst saying.

'The man who the nation welcomed (in 1999) and whose actions it approved in the beginning is gradually losing credibility,' the Daily Times commented after the Lahore rally. 'Outside Pakistan too his early ambivalence is now read clearly as non-performance.'

The only option, it seems, is to go ahead with a rumored deal with his erstwhile foe, the popular liberal former prime minister Benazir Bhutto, drop corruption charges against her and forge an alliance against radical and conservatives forces.

However, Bhutto's Pakistan People's Party says it will not accept the president if he stays on as army chief, as his supporters say he is entitled to do. But, it is in Benazir's interest to see Musharraf remain in some kind of power sharing arrangement with her to tackle the Generals, said Stratfor, an influential US-based think-tank, sometimes called CIA's cousin. According to the report, it is not in Benazir's interest to see Musharraf go, thus she is just using the judicial crisis to extract the most out of the deal. She will reportedly not participate in any movement to oust him.

The big picture also indicates a congruency of interests, both Musharraf's, hers, the West and the motley liberal forces in Pakistan. So it is only a matter of time that the details of the deal between the two sponsored by USA and UK will come out in the open.

If not, Musharraf could also play the religious wild card amid the radicalization threat, impose a state of emergency and call off the elections. But that risks far worse violence and international condemnation, including from his strategic ally the United States.

Or he could get out altogether and pass the khaki mantle of power to another 'untainted' general, thereby possibly preserving the military's central role.

Should he press ahead and engineer a further five-year presidential term as army chief in spite of the growing public thirst for change, the consequences may be dire, experts warn.

This would create so much internal pressure in the country that could burst out at any time later and be much more violent,' the analyst Masood said.

Given all of the above, Nawaz Sharif's outburst may just be his way of attempting to force Benazir to decide which way she really wanted to go. Interestingly, Benazir has never been in such a sought after position as now. Musharraf and Nawaz, have immediate agendas to address which only she can help fulfill.

But looks like the dice has already been fixed, and the croupier paid off!