NEW JERSEY, MAY 14 - Gen. Musharraf may be losing his
control of the army, in fact his source of power has begun to
distance itself from him because of the political storm he
has stirred up for himself lately.
According to Stratfor, the Texas-based news
intelligence agency cum think-tank, for whom many retired CIA
analysts and operatives find themselves working for, the idea that
President Musharraf is gradually losing his grip on the
Pakistani army could be gaining ground in Washington.
It also observes, in its latest intelligence brief, that his
generals are watching closely as Musharraf's support
is rapidly eroded, and they are now seeing it in their best
interest to distance themselves as much as possible from the
president. To back its ominous observation, it says it
appears that even the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR),
the media arm of the military, has been told to back away
from the General.
Though the director-general of ISPR has
recently operated as Musharraf's press secretary and has
often come to the defense of the president, routine
journalistic inquiries addressed to the ISPR are now being
directed to the Ministry of Information and Broadcasting, it
said. In other words, the ISPR appears to have been
issued a directive of some sort telling it not to take a
stand and to keep a safe distance from the political crisis,
the Texas-based firm has concluded.
In its latest intelligence brief, Stratfor, often called
CIA's cousin, says that the recent Karachi riots have backed
Musharraf into a tighter corner, and if he wants to finagle
his way out of this mess, he will have to make the
appropriate concessions: reinstate the chief justice, stand
down as army chief and strike a deal with the country's main
opposition group, Pakistan People's Party Parliamentarians
(PPP-P) that allows PPP-P leader and former Prime Minister
Benazir Bhutto to save face for dealing with a president
whose image has been severely tarnished.
Saying, that desperate times call for desperate measures,
the think-tank thinks that President Musharraf has been left
with little choice but to yield to the demands of his
opponents -- or else risk being pressured by the army
generals to step aside in the interest of safeguarding the
authority of the military establishment.
"The Karachi riots have created a scenario in which the best
Musharraf can hope for is to be able to play a role in the
transition from military to civilian rule during the early
2008 general election and negotiate to stay on as a
transitional president, a post that could provide him a safe
exit from power, observed Stratfor. If he does not move soon
to quell this political crisis, Washington could need to
seriously consider what it can expect from a post-Musharraf
regime in Islamabad, its latest intelligence brief, which
can be accessed on the internet via paid subscription, said.
Today, the United States, after maintaining a wait-and-see policy for
three days, deplored violence in Karachi. “We are
concerned about the situation, and are watching Karachi as
well as the country closely,” a State Department official
said in Washington.
Meanwhile, leading South Asia expert Stephen Cohen said in
an interview published in Washington this week that Gen
Musharraf was playing one against the other, offering to
share power and then withholding it, a comment by an
influential Washington insider which cannot be ignored by
those who closely follow Pakistan affairs.
“It’s going to come down to whoever goes to the streets and what happens
in the streets of Pakistan. That could happen in either the
presidential election or the general election,” he added.
Talking to "India Abroad", Cohen also said that the
political structure in Pakistan has to be rebuilt because
the military is not competent to govern the country, being
no substitute for organized political parties.
The embattled General today called a meeting of his close
aides including important military figures and discussed
important national issues with emphasis on Karachi. Reliable sources told Daily Times that the central
issue of the discussion was Karachi tragedy of May 12.
Sources said military figures were sad over the
Karachi tragedy. The meeting discussed in detail a strategy
to avert such situation in the future.
Either the countdown has begun or we
are somewhere at the hairpin bend of a road map that exists
of which we are fully
not aware of.
In both cases, Pakistani nation may be in for another
unwelcome ride!
Also read:
 Benazir
Bhutto - stuck between the two
The
Big Picture and its Pixels
Benazir-Musharraf
pact a done deal!
US
lawmakers favor return of Pakistan's exiled leaders |
