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NEW JERSEY, MAY 19 - Gen Musharraf has
sailed into a "perfect political storm" that could sweep
him from office and Benazir is ready to throw the gauntlet.
Encouraged by the the most recent political developments at
home, and taking cue from analyses and observations reported
in the Western media, former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto,
a sharp critic of Mr. Musharraf, told VOA's Islamabad correspondent
Gary Thomas on a phone
interview that the situation in Pakistan was precarious, and she is
ready to fly back sooner than she had planned.
"It's threatening to spiral out of control," she said. "I
think the regime still has initiative in its hands, but it
needs to take certain political steps and be ready to make
political compromises. But if it sticks to its stand and
refuses to negotiate with the opposition, and tries to
suppress the opposition movement, then I think the matter
will just spiral out of hand."
The stage appears set for such a confrontation. Only a
couple of days back, Gen. Musharraf told private Aaj TV
channel that
Benazir and another exiled former prime minister, Nawaz
Sharif, would not be allowed to return to compete in the
national elections scheduled for later this year.
"About their return, no, nobody is returning before
elections," he said.
However, Benazir said she will defy the ban, VOA
reported. Nawaz Sharif, excited that Musharraf is in the hot
seat, has jumped on the bandwagon and said he plans to
follow soon. But given the 10-year secret deal that exists,
he will be deported for sure, some observers said.
"I certainly plan to go back later this year," she said.
"I was planning to do that against the background of the
elections. But I am now reviewing the situation in Pakistan.
The events are turning over so quickly that I might have to
revise my own plans in the coming weeks. I may have to go
back sooner. I have taken no such decision as yet. And if
the regime fails to take the initiative in defusing the
situation, then I may have to review my travel plans."
Mr. Musharraf had been exploring a
possible alliance with Benazir until the Karachi bloodbath
changed the atmosphere and the dynamics. Benazir's perception now is that
her political strength has grown, understandably, therefore she says any political
talks right now would be "inappropriate," and that it is up
to Mr. Musharraf to make the first move.
"I'm not in a position to say that I'm willing to talk
anymore, Gary," she said. "I'm just not in a position to say
that because there's so much public anger. But I do believe
that General Musharraf should reach out to all the political
parties, call them to a roundtable conference, and say,
'I've heard your voice, I've heard your anger, I understand
that there is a lot of frustration, and what's the
solution?'"
VOA also quoted Christine Fair, a
Pakistan affairs analyst at the U.S. Institute for Peace,
who questioned whether General Musharraf will survive
politically or, perhaps, even physically, given that there
have been several assassination attempts on him.
The analyst however repeated what is already a common
knowledge, that "the U.S. government has steadfastly
refused to even contemplate other alternatives [to
Musharraf], even as the necessities for other alternatives
are fast looming". "And I'm also at this point of the belief
that we may get an alternative that no one has even thought
of. I mean, the fact that this has happened and the way it
has happened has kind of opened up new possibilities for new
actors."
The Bush administration has been a
staunch supporter of General Musharraf because of his
anti-terrorism efforts, and the US as lately as last week,
even after the Karachi mayhem and 42 deaths, have said it plans to
extend more support to him, as it feels he has not yet
reached the "end of his line".
While Musharraf's civilian support, specially among the
liberal elite and the civil society, has eroded quite a bit, his support in the upper echelons of the military
remains intact. In the worst case scenario, he may hand over
the COAS function to his VCOAS while he continues to remain
the President with additional powers if needed.
Another likely scenario could be the formation of a consensus
government or a national government in which he and the army
remain the loci of power.
The West has been looking towards a Turkey-style arrangement
in Pakistan, where the army controls the entry and exit of
succeeding political governments, no matter what. Such a
setup is crucial for the holistic solution of problems
inherent in Pakistan's body politik and social fabric,
regardless of who is responsible for having created them.
Robert Grenier, who was CIA station chief in Islamabad on
September 11, 2001, told VOA, President Musharraf's departure
could complicate U.S. anti-terrorism efforts in Pakistan.
Pakistan support to NATO allies in Afghanistan is essential
for stability, U.S. envoy Ronald E. Neumann who is former
ambassador to Afghanistan, said on May 16, even though
Stratfor has observed that with each passing day
President Musharraf appears to be
losing his hold on power.
The United States has been preparing for a post-Musharraffian
Pakistan for at least a little over a year. In the
beginning, however, the U.S. move stemmed from a desire to
move beyond reliance on a single individual leader, not
because of any threat to Musharraf's hold on power, Stratfor
wrote in one of its analysis some time back.
"Now that the political crisis has imposed a crisis of
governance on the Musharraf regime, it is only natural that
the United States now move from planning to actually
preparing for the time when Musharraf will no longer be
Pakistan's president. But the military establishment
dominates Pakistan, and Musharraf being both president and
military chief raises the question of who will replace him,
Stratfor analyst(s) recently wrote in its Geopolitical Diary:
Examining a Post-Musharraf Pakistan
Grenier, however, who has been much closer to the
Pakistani establishment as the CIA station chief during
9/11/ has observed otherwise.
Commenting on such a power shift, Grenier told VOA, "A new civilian government whose political posture would
not be nearly as strong as Musharraf's has been through most
of his tenure as president would have to be far more mindful
of domestic political impacts of actions that they take
against the militants, and I think would not be as inclined
as Musharraf has been to take forceful action against them,"
he said. "So, yeah, I think Musharraf's passage from the
scene, one way or the other, would greatly complicate our
efforts in the war on terror."
Having invested so much money, time and other resources, it
is but natural, in fact cost-effective, that the US and its
allies prefer to back Musharraf to extract the maximum
return on their investments through assignments handed down
to him and his Generals. It is indisputable that the General
and his team, against all odds, have delivered the most to
the West. Washington realizes that. Whether that would make
a difference if and when he reaches the "end of his line" is
any body's guess though.
Also read:
 Not
Again We Hope!
Avenging
Mullah Dadullah's Death
Has
the Countdown Begun?
Benazir
Bhutto - stuck between the two
The
Big Picture and its Pixels
Benazir-Musharraf
pact a done deal!
US
lawmakers favor return of Pakistan's exiled leaders
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