The Elephant in the Room| Oscar-Tango by Irshad Salim

NEW JERSEY, JUN 5 - There's an elephant in President Musharraf's room and apparently he is finding it difficult getting rid of it, in spite of his commando instincts and trainings.

While his friends in the army have come to his rescue, influential U. S. senators have said they would like to see more than one phone number to dial in Pakistan, just in case.

Gen Musharraf's lack of ability to match US establishment's very high expectation on his performance vis-a-vis its fight against Al-Qaeda and Taliban, has been the single most reason for its most recent rumblings. His slippages have added more worry for them and generated enough drawing room politics and side bar discussions.

As we all understand, the US war on terrorism, while having become too costly, is strategically too important to its national interests to be taken non-seriously by the rest of the world. The stakeholders however cannot let the war be totally dependent on one person - Gen. Musharraf - who may be losing his grip on his administration as the results of his most recent miscalculations and misadventures are proving.

For the present, the US will continue to prop up Musharraf's and his military-cum-political comrades' power house. This, as we all already know, is to insure continuity of efforts in its war against Islamic militants and radicals - the general being the key player, the frontline ally who has, according to them, delivered the most up till now.

When the US outsourced its dirty work to Pakistan's military and its partners in the establishment, they were conscious of the fact that they ought to have more than one person to fall back on, specially if and when the going gets tough. But, in order to get the quickest and the maximum return on their investments, it had to depend on one person or a group or persons for tactical reasons. The rationale being - it is rather easier to deal with one or a group of similar people (like Saudi kingdom) than an institution which is answerable to the people, faces ballot every four or five years and therefore lacks brinkmanship albeit one-manship necessary to go against the popular grain if need be. That is where the US' lack of exuberance to encourage quick succession to power by an elected democratic party or an emerging coherent establishment in Pakistan stands out as the raison de' etre for its tactical as well as strategic objectives.

According to Reuters report today, Pakistan's (read Musharraf government instead) use of violent intimidation to quell political protests threatens U.S. and Pakistani interests (delete "and Pakistani interests"), and President Pervez Musharraf must be encouraged to restore democratic processes, several U.S. congressmen say.

Hog Wash, says one Pakistani observer.

The West has no interest in the pursuit for a democratic setup in Pakistan as long as the fight against the terrorists keeps churning out a set of minimum acceptable results. This is their short term strategic interest. In the long haul, they do want the emergence of a controlled democratic setup in Pakistan, but one that guarantees "secularism", mass support and tolerance for the US and the West and their values and lifestyles - just as present day Turkey is demonstrating while Jordan, Algeria, Egypt are in the making. Pakistan and Bangladesh is on the burner too now. It will happen like it or not! But there's no harm in such an arrangement as long as there is a confluence of interests and there is mutual sharing among the players the tangible and intangible benefits the larger game is supposed to produce.

The bottom line presently is that the war on terrorism must continue uninterrupted, insuring the best possible results for the US, with or without Gen. Musharraf. Secondly, Pakistan must not be allowed to slip back into a post-Afghan War type largesse, because that would exponentially speed up Islamism and subsequently militantism in the region. That would be a disaster, affecting oil shipments to the US, thereby kicking up prices, etc. and in turn tipping the benchmark of American prosperity, superiority and world domination. Thus, the oil must free flow, at a cost acceptable only to corporate America, even if it means doing so at the cost of the sellers' (Saudia and Kuwait) interests and economic goals, and social and economical wellbeing of its people.

Saudia thus remains a kingdom, ruled by a family, which probably has more princes and princesses than the number of post-graduate Saudis. Similar situation by and large is true about Kuwait too.

Coming back to Musharraf (the most important U.S. ally in the war on terror) and Pakistan: Here's the scenario: Gen. Musharraf asked his army comrades the other day to publicly tell all that they are with him. A sign of weakness and an unprecedented move though, the Generals complied with his urgings and announced they supported him and his dual role, come what may.

But at a news briefing yesterday, US spokesman Sean McCormack said the State Department was watching events in Pakistan closely but that Washington did not want to tell its ally what to do. Gen. Musharraf, has gagged his country's nascent but emerging private TV media, because, sans training and self-restraint, they were kicking too much dust, said PEMRA.

The news director of one leading station, Aaj TV, said, "The government is getting frustrated � and the messenger is being killed for the message."

GEO TV went off the air on Sunday night while broadcasting an interview with former Chief of Army Staff Gen. Aslam Beg in which he criticized the government for suspending the chief justice and said the Musharraf government is shaky because of the public reaction to the suspension.

The channel is considered to be close to the government. However, that relationship took a new turn when it began to provide live coverage of the activities of the suspended chief justice, who is posing a political challenge for the government.

"When people close to you start distancing themselves, things don't look good then", said one observer who is close to the ruling junta.

�We had an interview with Imran Khan followed by a discussion about the military in politics. Suddenly, it all went blank,� said Geo's President Imran Aslam. The network earlier received a letter urging it not to air programs that promote an �anti-state attitude� or "cast aspersions against the judiciary and the integrity of the armed forces�.

The Times of UK warned that Pakistan edged closer to a full state of emergency on Monday with Gen. Musharraf's imposition of strict controls on newspapers and television channels in an attempt to contain anti-government protests.

Police also have registered a case today against as many as 200 journalists after they held a torch-bearing procession for freedom of press and made anti-government speeches in front of the prime minister secretariat in Islamabad.

And a report from Lahore says that the Punjab police and across the country in a sudden extensive crackdown have arrested hundreds of workers of different political and religious parties.

Observers have termed this crackdown a prelude to any major change, Pakistan Times online reported today.

If a state of emergency is declared, or a similar solution to the present uncontrollable quagmire created by Musharraf and his generals is thrust upon the Pakistani nation, the war on terrorism will of course continue with the uninterrupted inflow of money from the West, but Pakistan and Pakistanis will have to once again wait to tap dance to the rhythm of Quaid's freedom song, whose beat - the 1973 Constitution - unanimously accepted by all political parties remains elusive ever - thanks to Military Inc.

It will then further reinforce the cynical view that every country has an army, but the Pakistan army has a country.

Meanwhile, the party must go on with the elephant in the room. Too much is at stake, is the official line.

Also read: