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NEW JERSEY, JUN 12 - Richard Boucher, the U.S. assistant
secretary of state for South and Central Asian affairs is in
Islamabad to relay Washington's interest in having Gen.
Musharraf remain at the helm, while he communicates that the
President needs to reach an accommodation with his
opponents.
According to a latest situation analysis, President
Musharraf plans to reinstate suspended Chief Justice
Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry, in order to dissipate the
growing political storm in the country and secure his own
re-election. However, says Stratfor, the plan is
crippled by too many moving parts, meaning Musharraf at best
could only hold on to power as a president sharing power
with a prime minister at the head of a coalition government.
But Gen. Musharraf not only has the US backing to tough it
out, he has the support of the senior generals within the
military hierarchy, the Texas-based news intel service adds.
President Musharraf himself said June 8 that the nation
would hear the good news about the end of the ongoing
political crisis. "The ongoing drama will end itself very
soon and there is nothing to worry about it," he told
members of parliament from the ruling coalition and Cabinet
members.
Giving credence to the analysis, it is possible that the General was
alluding to Justice Iftikhar's reinstatement as "the good
news".
"The next step will be allowing Pakistan's Supreme Court to
reinstate the chief justice, the commentary adds, which will
be Musharraf's way of neutralizing the legal community's
protests, it said.
However, "once back on the job, Chaudhry will not be able to
participate in rallies given his position as a nonpartisan
national figure -- thus taking the chief justice and his
supporters out of the limelight. The government also will
try to block Chaudhry from presiding over cases involving
the president on grounds that as a party to a dispute with
the president, the top jurist cannot appear unbiased against
Musharraf. The chief justice and his allies indeed would
like to see Chaudhry's restoration and Musharraf's ouster.
The government, however, hopes the restoration will
forestall the latter", Stratfor added.
Says Stratfor, "ideally, Gen. Musharraf wants to remain army
chief of staff until after the parliamentary elections to be
held sometime in November, though even he knows that under
the present conditions that is asking too much. At a bare
minimum, however, he wants to remain military chief until
the first week of October so he can oversee the next round
of routine promotions and retirements of senior generals.
That would allow him to stack the military deck with people
he can theoretically work with even after becoming a
civilian president, " the news analysis observed.
But, says the agency, any deal to help him get re-elected as
President would have to include not just the PPP, but the
MMA also, which is one of the largest opposition blocs in
parliament -- because if its members tender their
resignations, it would render the entire electoral college
dysfunctional.
"Balancing the civilian side of his government with the
military side is rapidly becoming untenable for Musharraf.
As a result, the resolution to the current crisis requires a
very complex arrangement that under the present conditions
is unlikely to hold. Thus Musharraf at best can hope to
share power as a civilian with a much broader array of far
more assertive civilians", the news intel service
concluded in its latest situation analysis on Pakistan.
There's another scenario being discussed elsewhere:
"This is going to be a
Pinochet-like transition, instead of a Marcos-like one," one
former Pakistani official told TPMmuckraker. In other words,
according to the ex-official, the U.S. may not stand
foursquare behind its ally Musharraf until he's ultimately
forced from power, as President Ronald Reagan chose with
doomed Philippine dictator Ferdinand Marcos.
Musharraf can be eased out of power while the U.S. slowly
distances itself from him, allowing for as smooth a
transition as is possible in the turbulent South Asian
country, says Spencer Ackerman in his in-depth article in TPMmuckraker.com
Over the past few weeks, writes Spencer, U.S. intelligence
have started to conclude that Musharraf is on his way out.
"It is the sense people have, and it's been out there," said
Rob Richer, a former deputy head of CIA operations, to
Spencer, who has
met with Musharraf personally and long worked with the
Pakistanis on intelligence issues. "This is the view of both
senior (U.S. intelligence) officials and people who follow
the issue closely." What's more, Richer tells TPMmuckraker,
Musharraf himself knows his time is up, and is "looking for
an exit strategy":
"He believes his successor has got to be someone who
supports the military but it won't necessarily be someone in
uniform. There's no obvious candidate … At this point, he's
looking for the right person, a right-winger, someone who
understands the Army."
Musharraf's vision is to make
Pakistan like Turkey, where Islamic currents ebb and flow
with popular sentiment, "but who enforces what they call
democracy? The military." Adds Frederic Grare, a former
French diplomat in Pakistan, the military could "withdraw
behind the scenes but keep the levers of power," while a
civilian takes charge after elections that Musharraf has
called for in the fall.
The mistakes Musharraf made, writes Spencer, expose a regime "imploding"
under the weight of its contradictions, according to Grere,
and unable to mollify the multifaceted discontent that has
taken root since Musharraf seized power in a 1999 coup.
Neither Richer nor Grare, according to the article, believes that there's an obvious
candidate to succeed Musharraf. An ex-Pakistani official
cited two prominent generals who could emerge as successors
if the Army opts to retain formal rule, or alternatively,
serve as crucial behind-the-scenes power brokers. The two
are Ehsan Saleem Hayat, the army's vice chief of staff, and
Ehsan ul-Haq, the chairman of the joint chiefs and a former
head of Pakistan's powerful intelligence apparatus, known as
the ISI. According to the ex-Pakistani official, both men
were recently in Washington, sounding out senior officials:
"They didn't come to Washington for a Burger King meal."
Gen Ehsanul-Haq met in May
with Deputy Secretary of State John Negroponte, but the same
cannot be said for VCOAS Gen Hayat.
The former Pakistani official told the writer that the message that the
possible successors are trying to send to the U.S. is that
"continuity in policy can be ensured without the continuity
of an individual, while at the same time, a democratic
process can proceed." In other words, the U.S. can wean
itself off of Musharraf without fear that the U.S.-Pakistani
alliance is at risk, and will likely have some kind of
election to point to that blesses the result. Not many see
the Islamists as able to take control. "One common factor in
places where Islamists rise to power is the economy
tanking," observes Richer. "But in Pakistan investment is
taking off. It doesn't have many of the factors that drive
religious elements taking power."
Also read:
 The
Meltdown and the Future Military Leadership
The
Elephant in the Room
Pakistan's
"Military Incorporated"
'Why
Most Moderate Pakistanis Now Dislike America'
Benazir
Flaps Her Wings and Beyond
Not
Again We Hope!
Avenging
Mullah Dadullah's Death
Has
the Countdown Begun?
Benazir
Bhutto - stuck between the two
The
Big Picture and its Pixels
Benazir-Musharraf
pact a done deal!
US
lawmakers favor return of Pakistan's exiled leaders
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