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NEW JERSEY, JULY 6 - The Lal Masjid (Red Mosque) operation has entered
its fourth day. Firebrand cleric of the besieged mosque
complex, Maulana Aziz
was
caught red handed attempting to escape in a
Burqa. But his brother, Abdul Rashid Ghazi, the deputy
leader of Lal Masjid, said Friday he would rather die than
surrender. "This may be my last conversation with you."
Ghazi told a private TV channel. He is still holed up in the
premises.
Ghazi wants safe passage for himself and his compatriots
including his seminary students. Supposedly, more than 1200
of them are still inside the premises of the Lal
Masjid and the Jamia Hafsa seminary. More than 1200 of them have
surrendered though. Ghazi has questioned why the government
won't accept his conditional surrender if the Indians could
do the same to Mujahideens in Kashmir.
AAJ TV reported today that the besieged students
were writing their wills assuming their lives will be
the largest collateral damage the siege may produce.
Meanwhile, the "Silent Operation" continues. And the end doesn't seem to be near. Is it a ploy? Or a
well thought out tactic which only the State and the State
within the State only know about?
The Chief Justice issue seems to have suddenly landed on the side
burner - reduced to a secondary media treatment; the
All Parties Conference in London has also been politically
checkmated - its news having been reduced to a single column
on the Broadsheets' front pages.
Media has reported that
Gen Musharraf received a phone call from the new British Prime
Minister congratulating him on finally standing up to the
renegade clerics. The US administration also sent a verbal
pat on his back, linking it up as usual with its "war on
terrorism" in which the general is the key and the most
critical ally.
Assuming that the Lal Masjid matter will be disposed off
soon, will
there be a fallout which the State may not be able to
handle? Given the fact that there are already many a crisis
on its plate, if there is a fallout, it may trigger a damage
control in the form of "extra institutional" moves, or a
national government or a combination of all.
For the present, President Musharraf has gained political capital at
home as well as abroad. He seems to have regained the West's
confidence that he must stay in power if the fight against
Islamist radicalism and militancy is to continue. This could
help counter any slide in Washington's support for his
government.
The mosque standoff has also allowed him some degree of a
temporary reprieve from the ongoing domestic political
crisis. However, the coming elections and the verdict in the
case of suspended Pakistani Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohammad
Chaudhry will return to center stage quickly, putting his
troubles back in the spotlight.
The head of the 13-member Supreme Court full bench hearing
suspended Chief Justice Iftikhar's case has said the verdict will be
"historic".
If the "Silent Operation" against Lal Masjid renegades is
successful, without too many body bags of course,
expectations will increase internationally for the
general to deal with the Taliban and al Qaeda militants.
This expectation will come from the perception that if
General Musharraf's government can successfully crack down on
militants in one part of the country, it can reproduce those
results in the Federally Administrated Tribal Areas,
North-West Frontier Province and the Pashtun corridor in
northwestern Balochistan. Musharraf government's ability to
actually crack down on Islamist militants had been in
question in the West up until now, but the Red Mosque
situation has dispelled those doubts.
But the operation likely will create more resentment among
conservative and extremist circles, which could lead the
mainstream Islamist coalition, the Muttahida Majilis-i-Amal
(MMA), to lose some of its influence to more extremist
elements.
President
Musharraf needs support from the main opposition party,
former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto's Pakistan People's
Party (PPP). "This situation could give Benazir a certain
element of leverage in her back-channel communications with
him, allowing her to drive a harder bargain and
potentially forcing the General to make concessions", commented
Stratfor in its July 5 analysis titled: Pakistan:
After the Red Mosque Operation
The President is also in negotiations with Maulana Fazlur Rehman,
chief of JUI - the largest component party of the MMA-- to
help him get over the hurdle of his own re-election and the
parliamentary polls. He will now need the opposition
parties' support not only to secure a second term but also
to deal with the fallout from the "Silent Operation", which
could undoubtedly see increased militancy in the country.
Prior to the Red Mosque operation, Musharraf was already
headed toward a situation in which he would at least be
forced to share power, say several observers. The success of
the operation could prevent him from losing power altogether
-- which has been a prospect since early March, given the
brewing crisis. That said, the continuing crisis and
upcoming elections will put him in a position in which he
cannot avoid giving up some of his power to the next
civilian administration.
As I file this story, I have been told that the local media
have questioned the wisdom of not allowing the medics from
Edhi to enter Lal Masjid and Hafsa premises to
retrieve the dead bodies and provide help to the injured students.
According to news reports there may be as many as 80 dead
bodies and scores of injured students in these premises.
There may be wisdom in letting medics (like Edhi) enter the
mosque complex with white flags if need be. Dead bodies may
solve the Lal Masjid problem, but may add many more.
Have your say >
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